2025 Export Control Forum: Defining the Next Frontier

What should the 2025 Export Control Forum focus on to stay ahead in a volatile geopolitical and technological landscape?

Export Control professionals across the EU, UK, and US have witnessed seismic shifts in the past seven years—from regulatory overhauls to unprecedented geopolitical conflicts and rapid technological innovation.

Each annual Export Control Forum has offered a platform to recalibrate strategies and discuss emerging challenges.

Now, in 2025, with global tensions simmering and technology evolving faster than regulations, the question is clear: What must the 2025 Export Control Forum tackle to provide practical, future-proof guidance for compliance officers, exporters, and governments alike?

Key Questions Covered in This Blog

• What major geopolitical and technological trends should shape the 2025 forum agenda?

• How can the EU and global export controls better handle emerging technologies like AI, quantum computing, and biotech?

• What lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions enforcement need revisiting?

• How to improve multilateral coordination amid increasing export control fragmentation?

• What compliance challenges do SMEs and academia face in this evolving landscape?

• How can export controls balance security without stifling innovation and research?

  
  

“Export controls are no longer a bureaucratic checkbox; they are a strategic tool in navigating geopolitics and innovation. The 2025 Forum must be pragmatic, future-oriented, and inclusive.”— Arne Mielken, Managing Director, Customs Manager Ltd

Abbreviations Used In This Blog

• EU: European Union

• DG TRADE: Directorate-General for Trade, European Commission

• SMEs: Small and Medium Enterprises

• Wassenaar: Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technologies

• TTC: Trade and Technology Council

• ICPs: Internal Compliance Programs

What major geopolitical and technological trends should shape the 2025 forum agenda?

Since 2018, the global export control landscape has shifted dramatically. The Russian invasion of Ukraine turned sanctions and export controls into frontline tools of geopolitical strategy, demanding rapid adjustments and unprecedented allied cooperation. Simultaneously, emerging technologies—from artificial intelligence to quantum computing and biotechnology—are challenging the existing export control frameworks, which were never designed for such rapid innovation cycles.

The 2025 Forum must confront this dual reality head-on: geopolitical instability requires agile and responsive controls, while tech innovation demands a future-proof, flexible regulatory approach. This means integrating lessons from recent conflict-driven sanctions with proactive governance on next-gen technologies that can both empower and threaten global security.

How can the EU and global export controls better handle emerging technologies like AI, quantum computing, and biotech?

The 2024 Forum already flagged AI, semiconductor equipment, and cyber-surveillance as critical control areas. But by 2025, quantum computing and synthetic biology will be pressing new frontiers. These technologies blur traditional control boundaries: AI can be dual-use not only in hardware but also in software and algorithms, while biotech innovations carry significant risks if misused.

EU regulations must evolve beyond static control lists to a dynamic, technology-agnostic framework—one that emphasizes risk-based controls and intelligence-driven licensing. This requires stronger collaboration with industry innovators, academia, and research institutes, who hold the cutting-edge expertise but are often the least regulated under current regimes.

What lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions enforcement need revisiting?

The Russia-Ukraine war revealed the power and limits of export controls as a rapid response tool. Circumvention attempts are sophisticated, requiring real-time intelligence sharing between Member States and allied countries. However, enforcement remains uneven across the EU, and SMEs struggle to keep pace with complex sanctions compliance demands.

The 2025 Forum should push for standardized enforcement protocols and a common EU sanctions database accessible to all stakeholders. Equally critical is targeted outreach and training programs for SMEs and academia, to bridge the compliance gap without hampering legitimate trade and research.

How to improve multilateral coordination amid increasing export control fragmentation?

With rising geopolitical tensions, export control fragmentation risks becoming the new normal. While the EU, US, UK, Japan, and others seek alignment through platforms like the TTC, divergences in licensing requirements and control lists complicate global supply chains.

2025 must be the year to strengthen multilateral regimes like Wassenaar and MTCR through better synchronization mechanisms and practical joint enforcement initiatives. The Forum should prioritize transparency and mutual recognition agreements to ease cross-border trade while maintaining security standards.

What compliance challenges do SMEs and academia face in this evolving landscape?

SMEs and academic institutions remain the most vulnerable to compliance failures due to limited resources and expertise. The complexity of dual-use controls, intangible transfers, and sanctions enforcement can overwhelm them, leading to inadvertent violations and serious penalties.

The Forum should advocate for simplified licensing procedures, tailored guidance, and enhanced outreach—leveraging digital tools and platforms for compliance automation. This is not just good governance; it’s essential to preserve innovation ecosystems critical to Europe's technological sovereignty.

How can export controls balance security without stifling innovation and research?

Export controls must protect security interests but not become a straitjacket strangling innovation. The increasing overlap of export controls with human rights considerations and cyber-surveillance adds layers of complexity.

The 2025 Forum should promote clear, transparent criteria for control, emphasizing proportionality and risk management. It must also encourage engagement with the research community to develop mutually acceptable safeguards that enable responsible collaboration without compromising security.

Arne’s Takeaway

The 2025 Export Control Forum must pivot from reaction to anticipation—building on hard lessons from the past but looking boldly toward a rapidly changing future. It should spotlight emerging tech beyond AI and semiconductors, address enforcement gaps highlighted by recent conflicts, and reinforce global coordination while empowering SMEs and academia with practical tools. Only by doing so can export controls remain a credible, effective mechanism in an unpredictable world.