As the UK prepares for a potential shift in its political landscape, a question on many minds is: Will a Labour government under Keir Starmer reverse Brexit? The answer, while straightforward in some respects, opens a broader discussion on the future of the UK’s relationship with Europe.
Understanding the Context
To appreciate the current scenario, it's essential to look back at the historical parallels. In 1997, Tony Blair’s landslide victory and pro-European stance brought a wave of optimism. Blair was considered a figure who could integrate the UK more deeply into the European fold. Fast-forward to today, Keir Starmer finds himself in a somewhat similar position but in a drastically different context. The Brexit referendum in 2016 led to the UK leaving the EU, creating a complex and often contentious relationship.
Labour’s Stance on Brexit
Keir Starmer has clarified it: Labour will not seek to rejoin the EU's single market or customs union. This decision is rooted in respecting the democratic outcome of the Brexit referendum. Starmer’s approach aims to avoid the divisive politics that Brexit has caused, focusing instead on healing and moving forward.
But what does this mean in practical terms?
Starmer acknowledges the economic and strategic importance of the EU. His strategy revolves around improving relations and cooperation without fully reversing Brexit. This involves negotiating practical agreements on trade, security, and mobility to mitigate some negative impacts of Brexit.
The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)
The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which came into effect post-Brexit, offers zero customs duties on originating products, facilitating trade with the EU. However, it does not provide the same benefits as membership in the EU customs union and the Single Market. Significant friction remains, with customs declarations required for every shipment between the EU and the UK. This bureaucratic hurdle has complicated trade, and costs have skyrocketed, especially in 2024 when new SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) agri-food trade controls with export health certificates and IPAFFS pre-notifications were enforced. These changes have cost businesses millions and have highlighted the need for smoother trade mechanisms.
Labour’s Approach to Renegotiation
Keir Starmer has indicated that while Labour will not seek to rejoin the EU's single market or customs union, they are committed to improving the terms of trade between the UK and the EU. This means Labour will aim to renegotiate specific aspects of the TCA to make cross-border trade easier. The primary focus will be on reducing the bureaucratic and financial burdens that have plagued businesses since Brexit.
Labour Will Negotiate a Veterinary Agreement with the EU
One of the key areas Labour will target is the reduction of friction in agri-food cross-border trade. Labour plans to negotiate a veterinary agreement with the EU, which would significantly ease the movement of these goods. Best practice examples such as the EU-Switzerland Veterinary Agreement and the EU-New Zealand Veterinary Agreement provide valuable templates for this effort. These agreements have successfully reduced the need for extensive checks and controls, thereby streamlining trade processes and cutting costs. By adopting similar measures, Labour aims to mitigate the impact of the stringent SPS controls that have recently come into force, making it easier and more cost-effective for businesses to trade agri-food products with the EU.
The Diplomatic Landscape
Labour’s strategy will involve careful negotiation, balancing the UK's needs with the EU's established red lines. European leaders, while potentially more amenable to discussions with a Labour government, will not easily offer the benefits the UK once enjoyed as a member. Any new agreements will require the UK to make significant concessions, reflecting the EU's interests.
For example, the EU might demand reciprocal arrangements that benefit their member states, such as enhanced youth mobility schemes or long-term fishing rights. These negotiations will be complex, and while Labour can expect a warmer reception than their Conservative predecessors, they will still face substantial challenges in securing favourable terms.
Economic Imperatives
Economic growth remains at the heart of Labour's agenda. The Office for Budget Responsibility has highlighted the economic downturn resulting from Brexit, estimating a 4% hit to the UK's GDP. Improving access to the EU market is critical to counter this downturn. Reducing trade costs, which have soared due to new SPS controls and customs requirements, is essential for economic recovery.
Think tanks like UK in a Changing Europe emphasize that while minor technical improvements in trade can help, they won’t fully address the economic impacts of Brexit. The real gains lie in more profound integration and smoother trade relations, which Labour aims to achieve through targeted renegotiations of the TCA.
Strategic and Geopolitical Considerations
Beyond economics, strategic reasons also drive Labour’s desire to foster a closer relationship with the EU. Global uncertainties, such as the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and rising tensions with China, make international alliances more critical than ever.
European leaders might see Starmer as an ally in a turbulent geopolitical landscape. However, the EU's internal challenges, such as the rise of far-right parties and the stability of the Franco-German axis, mean that Europe’s priorities might not align seamlessly with the UK’s ambitions.
The Long Road Ahead
While a Labour government will not reverse Brexit, it seeks to navigate a path that brings the UK closer to the EU through pragmatic, targeted renegotiations of the TCA. This approach respects the Brexit decision while aiming to repair and strengthen the bonds that have frayed over the past few years.
The journey towards a smoother, more cooperative EU-UK relationship promises to be an intricate dance of diplomacy, compromise, and strategic alignment. Labour’s efforts to renegotiate aspects of the TCA, especially regarding veterinary agreements, will be crucial steps in fostering stability and growth in a post-Brexit era.
The question isn’t just whether a Labour government will reverse Brexit—it won’t—but how it will shape the UK’s future in a complex and interconnected world.
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